Oscar Roundup 2012

56% accuracy this year. This is becoming a trend with me. I miscalculated Hugo's technical award chances, went out on some shakier limbs with my Best Actor/Actress picks (though I was fully aware of what I was doing), The Academy pulled a fast one on my by changing up the usually sure thing category of Costume Design and not giving the award to a Victorian/Elizabethan period piece, and no one saw Dragon Tattoo winning for editing ... I can't blame myself for that one at least.

84th Oscar Awards Picks

It's that time of year again and after a couple years of less than stellar picks on my part I'm hoping to boost my average this year with a more accurate list of predictions. Let's get right to it then:

Best Picture
Three years in and I still find the expansion of this category to include 10 nominees to not only be a waste of time for consideration purposes, but for the audience as well. Even when there were only 5 nominees, chances were that 2 or 3 of them didn't have a shot anyway, now there's even more fluff to sort through. Let's boil this down to the 3 movies that have a chance: The Artist, Hugo, and The Descendants.  Both The Artist and The Descendants come into the fray with Golden Globe wins for Best Picture and while Hugo didn't win big, it came out of that awards show with some buzz as well, though it seems to have faded. Now I may have been expecting too much from The Descendants based on Alexander Payne's prior works, but I wasn't as taken with it as some. In my opinion he's much better at character pieces than the straighter sort of drama/comedy that The Descendants ended up being. The Artist on the other hand was a movie I had no expectations for other than what had been generated by the buzz surrounding the film and I was not only pleasantly surprised, but thoroughly entertained on several different levels. If I'm going to be honest however, neither of these films is my personal choice for Best Picture this year, but the film I chose wasn't nominated: Drive. Regardless, I have to go with The Artist in this category. It would be a bold move for the Academy to award a film that (being both black & white, and silent) doesn't have immediate appeal to a large segment of the movie-going public. The Academy is no stranger to bold moves however. Add to this the fact that the Oscars (like The Artist) are a celebration of the art and artistry of film throughout the ages and The Artist is a no-brainer.

Pick: The Artist

Actor in a Leading Role
Smart money in this category should be on Clooney and  Dujardin due to their Golden Globe wins, but adding Gary Oldman to the list of potentials would not be a bad move. Personally I think when you stack Clooney's performance in The Descendants up against Dujardin in The Artist there's no question that Dujardin wins, but once you consider Oldman, it becomes a much more interesting field. Something tells me to bet on Oldman for this one as much as I think Dujardin has a great shot. Oldman's performance was subtle and measured in Tinker, Tailor and while that makes it difficult to judge versus Dujardin's pitch-perfect silent era mugging, I think Oldman tips the scales due to his experience, lengthy career, and having been snubbed before. Giving Oldman the Oscar here is very much like giving Scosese the Oscar for The Departed. More an acknowledgement of a career than a specific role.

Pick: Gary Oldman (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)

Actress in a Leading Role
Well damn. How the hell do you even begin to pick in this category. Even if you just boil it down to Streep, Mara, and Williams, it's still near impossible to pick. My personal pick is Rooney Mara, whose performance in Dragon Tattoo was both compelling and haunting, but I'm coming from a place where I was waved off from seeing The Iron Lady and never got around to My Week With Marilyn so I don't have first person accounts to work from. I think streep had good buzz going into the Golden Globes, but then audiences actually saw The Iron Lady and didn't really care. I'm going to throw my lot behind Williams here as much as I want Rooney Mara to win it, but I would not be surprised to see Viola Davis come out of what I personally perceive to be "nowhere" in this category either.

Pick: Michelle Williams (My Week With Marilyn)

Actor in a Supporting Role
Why is it that the supporting actor and actress awards always seem to pick from movies I haven't seen? My problem in this specific category is that while I did see Moneyball, Jonah Hill doesn't have a chance. I almost get the feeling that this nomination is the Academy giving him a hint: reminding him that he's got broader range than dick jokes. If you take him out of the equation all I'm left with having seen is Christopher Plummer in Beginners. What makes it really tough for me to judge this (besides the fact that Plummer won the Globe in this category) is that I adored Beginners so I fear that there is some bias here on my part. Still, I have no reason not to pick him therefore Plummer it is.

Pick: Christopher Plummer (Beginners)


Actress in a Supporting Role
Traditionally this is one of my worst categories. Even more so than the men's category it seems that I never see any of the films that people get nominated from when it comes to Supporting Actress. I'm not even going to question it with this one though. With two actresses from The Help nominated it seems a fairly smart thing to pick one of them therefore I'm going with the one that won the Globe: Octavia Spencer

Pick: Octavia Spencer (The Help)

Animated Feature Film
Really? No Tintin? OK. Having seen none of these, I'm at a loss, especially given two films on the list I hadn't even heard of. I have to go with Rango though. Out of the 3 films on this list that I have heard of, this is the only one that seemed even remotely Oscar-worthy and that numerous people told me to see.

Pick: Rango

Cinematography
This is a loaded list this year. You can probably remove War Hose and Dragon Tattoo right away, but you're still left with 3 potential winners, each of them visually brilliant in their own way. I've heard decent buzz surrounding Hugo for this category, but personally I have to wonder if The Artist isn't actually a better achievement. Hugo is beautiful, but I think The Artist's faithful take on late 1920's/ early 1930's film technique is more alluring in the end. I think Hugo may have Art Direction tied up, but I have to give Cinematography to The Artist. Oh and Tree of Life loses simply for making me watch that same damn trailer for a year ... a trailer that screamed "give me an Oscar". Sorry ... no Oscar for you!

Pick: The Artist

Art Direction
As I said above, I think Hugo get this one. The Artist may be in a position to upset, but if things go the way I think they will, the split between Cinematography and Art Direction is going to go in my favor.

Pick: Hugo

Costume Design
NEVER BET AGAINST AN ELIZABETHAN OR VICTORIAN PERIOD PIECE! I've gone against my own advice once and that was the only time I didn't win this category. Not this time! Jane Eyre wins!

Pick: Jane Eyre

Directing
Well let's just get rid of Terrance Malick immediately. While pretentious excess certainly has it's place in the Oscars, I don't see Malick's Tree of Life winning him this category at all. I honestly think this may be between Michael Hazanavicious, Alexander Payne, and Scorsese. Personally I think it would be a shame to give it to either Payne or Scorsese though, mainly because they've previously made better films that deserved this award much more. I do however know that this did not stop the Academy from giving Scorsese the Directing award for the mess that was The Departed several years back. Given the above and with Hazanavicious having won the Director's Guild Award, I think he's got to be my front runner here.

Pick: Michael Hazanavicious (The Artist)

Documentary Feature
Documentary Short
Here's where we start getting into the categories based on films I didn't see at all and unlike some people, I simply don't pick in categories like this.

Film Editing
This is probably between Hugo and The Artist, but similar to the Cinematography category, I think The Artist is the bigger achievement here. Hugo may be well edited, but The Artist is well edited and accomplished the task of fitting an era-specific editing style as well. To me that is the greater achievement.

Pick: The Artist

Makeup
I know nothing about film makeup except that it's not easy making someone look natural under those lights, therefore I have no pick here.

Music (Original Score)
Oh come on! This has to go to The Artist. As a "silent" film the score is a HUGE part of the narrative and expressive element of the movie. Other films may have excellent scores in this category, but The Artist's score is the only one that could also have been nominated for Actor in a Supporting Role as well.

Pick: The Artist

Music (Original Song)
It's a 50/50 shot here, but when the chips are down I bet on Muppets every time.

Pick: "Man or Muppet" from The Muppets

Short Film (Animated)
Short Film (Live Action)
Every year I mean to get out and see the Short film showcases and the various theaters in the cities in which I have lived, but I never manage to do so. I'm just lazy I guess. That being the case, I have no picks here.

Sound Editing
Sound Mixing
I'll just be honest and tell you that when it comes to sound editing and mixing in film, I have no idea what's good and what's not. When it comes to music I definitely have my opinions on what a well mixed album sounds like, but in film it's just an element I've never paid much attention to.

Visual Effects
Take a moment at let these nominees sink in. The first thing you want to do is get rid of any notion that Transformers will win. Sure, the robots may be technically impressive, but they work horribly for film on so many levels. You can drop Real Steel too, but it really is an honor just to be nominated. This leaves you with Hugo, Harry Potter, and Rise of the Planet of the Apes. Like most technical awards, it comes down to the challenge and the level of achievement. When you take that into account I think the most obvious choice is Rise of the Planet of the Apes. The film gave itself the task of creating believable CG primates that people could relate to and accomplished this goal brilliantly. If Harry or Hugo took this award instead, I wouldn't be surprised, but I would be disappointed. I think the apes have this one locked up. The lawgiver has spoken!

Pick: Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
This is a tough one here. On one hand The Descendants was a better movie, but on the other Moneyball took a non-narrative book and adapted it for the screen in a way that was both compelling and still true to the source. My personal feeling is that Moneyball wins this and I know I'm going against some buzz by saying this. Ultimately I think it's the better choice and I'm willing to accept losing this category because of it. Also ... I can't vote against Sorkin, I just can't.


Pick: Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian & Stan Chervin (Moneyball)

Writing (Original Screenplay)
If Director goes to Hazanavicious, then it's hard not to give this one to Woody Allen and with the exception of a surprise rally for Bridesmaids, I don't see how this is not a two nominee category this year. I'm going to throw my weight behind Allen though. Even though there is a certain challenge in writing for silent film, I think Woody's pedigree and his Golden Globe win make him the better choice this year.

Pick: Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)

83rd Oscar Awards Predictions

It's that time again and since there really isn't any reason to complain about the fact that there was a dearth of good films this year (since it just seems to be the status quo now), let's get right to my predictions.






Best Picture
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are Alright
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

I guess I can't blame The Academy for expanding this category, after all the Golden Globes have two Best Picture categories with 5 nominees each, why not broaden the field. Fortunately (or unfortunately depending on your viewpoint) the Oscars are not the Golden Gloves so several of these films (while it's nice to be nominated) never had a chance of winning to begin with. Toy Story 3, 127 Hours, The Kids Are Alright ... sorry, you never had a chance. That leaves us with 7 possible nominees.

First things first, let's eliminate Winter's Bone. I really liked this movie, but it's too obscure and too subdued to win an Oscar. This is a film for the critics awards and definitely worth watching. Inception may be this year's anomaly in that it was both popular and very well made, but it's not Oscar material in this category, not with this competition. The Fighter somehow generated Oscar buzz around the time of it's release, but let's get something straight: the only thing this movie has going for it are two stellar performances by Amy Adams and Christian Bale. Everything else about this film was boilerplate from start to finish. True Grit was a great film, well written, well directed, and well acted, but it's a remake and I don't see a remake, no matter how good winning this category. Similar to Inception, it's just not going to happen against this competition. That leave us with 3 actual contenders.

While The Social Network will live on as a true modern period piece, artfully accomplished against great odds by both cast and crew, I don't see it winning this category despite some of the recent buzz and a Golden Globe win. Black Swan is my personal pick for Best Picture of the year, but I think this bird flies just a little too high over Oscar's head to win. Certainly one of Aronofsky's best films to date and a must see for this year, but it's just too artsy to win here. The King's Speech is going to take this category for one simple reason, it's well rounded. The film is well made, well, acted, well written, and well directed, artsy in a classic Hollywood style, approachable by a broad audience, and quite simply endearing. Add in the fact that it's been getting Oscar Buzz for a couple months now and you're got my pick.

Pick: The King's Speech.

Actor in a Leading Role
Javier Bardem (Biutiful)
Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
James Franco (127 Hours)

You couldn't ask for a more difficult choice this year. These are all brilliant performances. I've got to go with Colin Firth in The King's Speech though. Momentum has to be considered when picking the Oscars and I think this film has it, especially after he won the Golden Globe in this category. Honestly though, if any one of these actors won this category I would not be surprised.

Pick: Colin Firth

Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale (The Fighter)
John Hawkes (Winter's Bone)
Jeremy Renner (The Town)
Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are Alright)
Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech)

This is between Geoffrey Rush and Christian Bale and having seen both performances, I have to give this to Bale. Rush was good, but Bale was brilliant. I was seriously reminded of DeNiro or Pachino in their prime, simply remarkable.

Pick: Christian Bale

Actress in a Leading Role
Annette Bening (The Kids Are Alright)
Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone)
Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)

This was a shitty year for Women in film. All you have to do is take a look at the Men's roles vs. the Women's and try to avoid the gaping chasm between them. First off, why was The Kids Are Alright nominated for anything? This film played out like a bad Lifetime movie and before anyone says I'm being unfair to a Women's film, any defense of this film as some kind of standard bearer of Women's or lesbian rights or viewpoints is simply patronizing. I didn't see Rabbit Hole, although I heard it was good. Neither did I see Blue Valentine, but you can blame the awful, touchy-feely, date movie trailer for that. Jennifer Lawrence was excellent in Winter's Bone. Conveying emotion in a loud, raucous movie is easy, doing so in a subdued film like Winter's Bone takes talent. When it all comes down to it though, if this award doesn't go to Natalie Portman, I'm going to riot. Portman owned her role in Black Swan in a way I have seen few actors do before. Not only did she succeed in overcoming the challenges of the script, but also of the production. The camera is rarely not on Portman throughout the course of the film and when it is on here it is primarily in close up. If Portman hadn't so nailed this performance it would have been relevant immediately on screen and I saw nothing but perfection.

Pick: Natalie Portman

Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams (The Fighter)
Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech)
Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)

This is a category I usually count on getting wrong, usually because the nominees are from movies I haven't seen. This year, with the exception of Animal Kingdom, I've seen all these performances. Still, this is a tough one. The Golden Globe went to Melissa Leo, but I personally think that Amy Adams was better in The Fighter, although this could be bias because I have a huge crush on Amy Adams. Helen Bonham Carter was good as usual, but she really didn't do anything in The King's Speech except be British and regal. I think this is between Melissa Leo and Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit and I'm going with Steinfeld. There are two reasons for this 1) she did a really good job and 2) I think The Academy likes giving awards to kids when they can. Remember when Anna Paquin won for The Piano. Best. Acceptance. Speech. Ever.

Pick: Hailee Steinfeld

Animated Feature Film
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

Maybe I'll be surprised this year, but usually there is a pretty reliable way to win this category: don't bet against Pixar.

Pick: Toy Story 3

Art Direction
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and The Deathly Hallows Part 1
Inception
The King's Speech
True Grit

This is one of those categories where it's usually a bad idea to vote against the period piece and we kind of have two here in The King's Speech and True Grit. I've got to go with The King's Speech though.

Pick: The King's Speech

Cinematography
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

I have to believe this is between Black Swan and Inception. While they both had their own unique challenges in shooting, I have to go with Black Swan. There are technical awards for Inception to win, Black Swan should get one for old fashioned camera work and for really using the frame as a story telling device.

Pick: Black Swan

Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland
I Am Love
The King's Speech
The Tempest
True Grit

You almost always have to vote for the Victorian era period piece, since we don't have one this year (and Alice in Wonderland doesn't count) we go with the closest approximation, that being The King's Speech.

Pick: The King's Speech

Directing
Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
David O. Russell (The Fighter)
Tom Hooper (The King's Speech)
David Fincher (The Social Network)
Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit)

For my money, this is between Aronofsky, Fincher, and the Coen Brothers. Fincher won the Golden Globe, and the Coen Brothers were in rare form on True Grit, but I have to vote my conscience here and give it to Aronofsky. I may lose this category, but if they aren't going to give Aronofsky best picture they should give him director. Now ... all this goes out the window if I'm wrong about Best Picture. The directing in The King's Speech was impressive to the degree where Hooper would get this award, even though Picture and Director Oscars almost always go hand in hand. If The Social Network wins instead then this may very well go to Fincher.

Pick: Darren Aronofsky

Documentary Feature
Documentary Short Subject

I didn't see any of these so it would be a crap shoot to pick here, therefore I abstain.

Film Editing
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network

Editing is such a nuanced art and I've never really been able to discern a pattern in this category, therefore I've got to go with my gut. I'm picking Black Swan in this category.

Pick: Black Swan

Foreign Language Film

Having not seen any of these I abstain

Makeup
Barney's Version
The Way Back
The Wolfman

In the absence of a Victorian era period piece, go for the monster movie.

Pick: The Wolfman

Music (original score)
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network

No ... Inception isn't going to win because the "BWONG!" track playing over the trailer became an internet meme. This is often a difficult category to pick, but based on the Golden Globe winner and some careful thought I really think The Social Network has a chance here. I also think it will be amazing to see Trent Reznor accept an Academy Award.

Pick: The Social Network

Music (original song)
Coming Home (Country Strong)
I See the Light (Tangled)
If I Rise (127 Hours)
We Belong Together (Toy Story 3)

I think the only time I was ever sure of a choice in this category was in 2008 when "Jai Ho" was nominated from Slumdog Millionaire. I didn't see any of the movies here, but I'm going to go with Toy Story 3 because hey ... it's Randy Newman, why not?

Pick: We Belong Together (Toy Story 3)

Short Film (animated)
Short Film (live action)

I'm abstaining from these categories as well since I didn't see any of these, not that I didn't have a chance to, I just didn't.

Sound Editing
Sound Mixing

I'm skipping these as well. I just don't know enough about sound or how the Academy tends to vote in these categories to make any sort of educated guess.

Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Hereafter
Inception
Iron Man 2

I would be really surprised if Inception didn't win this, I mean seriously.

Pick: Inception

Writing (adapted screenplay)
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

This is a three horse race between Winter's Bone, True Grit, and The Social Network. With the fact that The Social Network won the Golden Globe and Aaron Sorkin being an amazing writer, I have to give him the award here.

Pick: The Social Network

Writing (original screenplay)
Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are Alright
The King's Speech

Ok, I don't see The Fighter winning because it should be considered an adaptation if you ask me, since it's based on a true story. I've already expressed my confusion regarding The Kids Are Alright, so that leaves 3 choices, none of which are written by first timers who tend to get recognized by this award more often than not. I'm really kind of stuck on this one, but I'm going to go with The King's Speech simply because I'm giving it recognition elsewhere.

Pick: The King's Speech

I did pretty bad last year in my predictions, less than 60%, but traditionally I'm usually up around 80% accuracy. This year I'm really not sure. It really comes down to whether or not The Social Network's Golden Globe win carries over or not. If it does, then I'm sunk. If it doesn't then things will likely go my away across the board for the most part.