83rd Oscar Awards Predictions

It's that time again and since there really isn't any reason to complain about the fact that there was a dearth of good films this year (since it just seems to be the status quo now), let's get right to my predictions.






Best Picture
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are Alright
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

I guess I can't blame The Academy for expanding this category, after all the Golden Globes have two Best Picture categories with 5 nominees each, why not broaden the field. Fortunately (or unfortunately depending on your viewpoint) the Oscars are not the Golden Gloves so several of these films (while it's nice to be nominated) never had a chance of winning to begin with. Toy Story 3, 127 Hours, The Kids Are Alright ... sorry, you never had a chance. That leaves us with 7 possible nominees.

First things first, let's eliminate Winter's Bone. I really liked this movie, but it's too obscure and too subdued to win an Oscar. This is a film for the critics awards and definitely worth watching. Inception may be this year's anomaly in that it was both popular and very well made, but it's not Oscar material in this category, not with this competition. The Fighter somehow generated Oscar buzz around the time of it's release, but let's get something straight: the only thing this movie has going for it are two stellar performances by Amy Adams and Christian Bale. Everything else about this film was boilerplate from start to finish. True Grit was a great film, well written, well directed, and well acted, but it's a remake and I don't see a remake, no matter how good winning this category. Similar to Inception, it's just not going to happen against this competition. That leave us with 3 actual contenders.

While The Social Network will live on as a true modern period piece, artfully accomplished against great odds by both cast and crew, I don't see it winning this category despite some of the recent buzz and a Golden Globe win. Black Swan is my personal pick for Best Picture of the year, but I think this bird flies just a little too high over Oscar's head to win. Certainly one of Aronofsky's best films to date and a must see for this year, but it's just too artsy to win here. The King's Speech is going to take this category for one simple reason, it's well rounded. The film is well made, well, acted, well written, and well directed, artsy in a classic Hollywood style, approachable by a broad audience, and quite simply endearing. Add in the fact that it's been getting Oscar Buzz for a couple months now and you're got my pick.

Pick: The King's Speech.

Actor in a Leading Role
Javier Bardem (Biutiful)
Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
James Franco (127 Hours)

You couldn't ask for a more difficult choice this year. These are all brilliant performances. I've got to go with Colin Firth in The King's Speech though. Momentum has to be considered when picking the Oscars and I think this film has it, especially after he won the Golden Globe in this category. Honestly though, if any one of these actors won this category I would not be surprised.

Pick: Colin Firth

Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale (The Fighter)
John Hawkes (Winter's Bone)
Jeremy Renner (The Town)
Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are Alright)
Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech)

This is between Geoffrey Rush and Christian Bale and having seen both performances, I have to give this to Bale. Rush was good, but Bale was brilliant. I was seriously reminded of DeNiro or Pachino in their prime, simply remarkable.

Pick: Christian Bale

Actress in a Leading Role
Annette Bening (The Kids Are Alright)
Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone)
Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)

This was a shitty year for Women in film. All you have to do is take a look at the Men's roles vs. the Women's and try to avoid the gaping chasm between them. First off, why was The Kids Are Alright nominated for anything? This film played out like a bad Lifetime movie and before anyone says I'm being unfair to a Women's film, any defense of this film as some kind of standard bearer of Women's or lesbian rights or viewpoints is simply patronizing. I didn't see Rabbit Hole, although I heard it was good. Neither did I see Blue Valentine, but you can blame the awful, touchy-feely, date movie trailer for that. Jennifer Lawrence was excellent in Winter's Bone. Conveying emotion in a loud, raucous movie is easy, doing so in a subdued film like Winter's Bone takes talent. When it all comes down to it though, if this award doesn't go to Natalie Portman, I'm going to riot. Portman owned her role in Black Swan in a way I have seen few actors do before. Not only did she succeed in overcoming the challenges of the script, but also of the production. The camera is rarely not on Portman throughout the course of the film and when it is on here it is primarily in close up. If Portman hadn't so nailed this performance it would have been relevant immediately on screen and I saw nothing but perfection.

Pick: Natalie Portman

Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams (The Fighter)
Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech)
Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)

This is a category I usually count on getting wrong, usually because the nominees are from movies I haven't seen. This year, with the exception of Animal Kingdom, I've seen all these performances. Still, this is a tough one. The Golden Globe went to Melissa Leo, but I personally think that Amy Adams was better in The Fighter, although this could be bias because I have a huge crush on Amy Adams. Helen Bonham Carter was good as usual, but she really didn't do anything in The King's Speech except be British and regal. I think this is between Melissa Leo and Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit and I'm going with Steinfeld. There are two reasons for this 1) she did a really good job and 2) I think The Academy likes giving awards to kids when they can. Remember when Anna Paquin won for The Piano. Best. Acceptance. Speech. Ever.

Pick: Hailee Steinfeld

Animated Feature Film
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

Maybe I'll be surprised this year, but usually there is a pretty reliable way to win this category: don't bet against Pixar.

Pick: Toy Story 3

Art Direction
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and The Deathly Hallows Part 1
Inception
The King's Speech
True Grit

This is one of those categories where it's usually a bad idea to vote against the period piece and we kind of have two here in The King's Speech and True Grit. I've got to go with The King's Speech though.

Pick: The King's Speech

Cinematography
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

I have to believe this is between Black Swan and Inception. While they both had their own unique challenges in shooting, I have to go with Black Swan. There are technical awards for Inception to win, Black Swan should get one for old fashioned camera work and for really using the frame as a story telling device.

Pick: Black Swan

Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland
I Am Love
The King's Speech
The Tempest
True Grit

You almost always have to vote for the Victorian era period piece, since we don't have one this year (and Alice in Wonderland doesn't count) we go with the closest approximation, that being The King's Speech.

Pick: The King's Speech

Directing
Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
David O. Russell (The Fighter)
Tom Hooper (The King's Speech)
David Fincher (The Social Network)
Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit)

For my money, this is between Aronofsky, Fincher, and the Coen Brothers. Fincher won the Golden Globe, and the Coen Brothers were in rare form on True Grit, but I have to vote my conscience here and give it to Aronofsky. I may lose this category, but if they aren't going to give Aronofsky best picture they should give him director. Now ... all this goes out the window if I'm wrong about Best Picture. The directing in The King's Speech was impressive to the degree where Hooper would get this award, even though Picture and Director Oscars almost always go hand in hand. If The Social Network wins instead then this may very well go to Fincher.

Pick: Darren Aronofsky

Documentary Feature
Documentary Short Subject

I didn't see any of these so it would be a crap shoot to pick here, therefore I abstain.

Film Editing
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network

Editing is such a nuanced art and I've never really been able to discern a pattern in this category, therefore I've got to go with my gut. I'm picking Black Swan in this category.

Pick: Black Swan

Foreign Language Film

Having not seen any of these I abstain

Makeup
Barney's Version
The Way Back
The Wolfman

In the absence of a Victorian era period piece, go for the monster movie.

Pick: The Wolfman

Music (original score)
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network

No ... Inception isn't going to win because the "BWONG!" track playing over the trailer became an internet meme. This is often a difficult category to pick, but based on the Golden Globe winner and some careful thought I really think The Social Network has a chance here. I also think it will be amazing to see Trent Reznor accept an Academy Award.

Pick: The Social Network

Music (original song)
Coming Home (Country Strong)
I See the Light (Tangled)
If I Rise (127 Hours)
We Belong Together (Toy Story 3)

I think the only time I was ever sure of a choice in this category was in 2008 when "Jai Ho" was nominated from Slumdog Millionaire. I didn't see any of the movies here, but I'm going to go with Toy Story 3 because hey ... it's Randy Newman, why not?

Pick: We Belong Together (Toy Story 3)

Short Film (animated)
Short Film (live action)

I'm abstaining from these categories as well since I didn't see any of these, not that I didn't have a chance to, I just didn't.

Sound Editing
Sound Mixing

I'm skipping these as well. I just don't know enough about sound or how the Academy tends to vote in these categories to make any sort of educated guess.

Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Hereafter
Inception
Iron Man 2

I would be really surprised if Inception didn't win this, I mean seriously.

Pick: Inception

Writing (adapted screenplay)
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

This is a three horse race between Winter's Bone, True Grit, and The Social Network. With the fact that The Social Network won the Golden Globe and Aaron Sorkin being an amazing writer, I have to give him the award here.

Pick: The Social Network

Writing (original screenplay)
Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are Alright
The King's Speech

Ok, I don't see The Fighter winning because it should be considered an adaptation if you ask me, since it's based on a true story. I've already expressed my confusion regarding The Kids Are Alright, so that leaves 3 choices, none of which are written by first timers who tend to get recognized by this award more often than not. I'm really kind of stuck on this one, but I'm going to go with The King's Speech simply because I'm giving it recognition elsewhere.

Pick: The King's Speech

I did pretty bad last year in my predictions, less than 60%, but traditionally I'm usually up around 80% accuracy. This year I'm really not sure. It really comes down to whether or not The Social Network's Golden Globe win carries over or not. If it does, then I'm sunk. If it doesn't then things will likely go my away across the board for the most part.